Gold prices had a good year, and may rise again in 2025

“If gold prices continue their upward trajectory, this will definitely provide favorable tailwinds for Elko’s regional economy in 2025,” Elko Mayor Reece Keener said.

Record highs on futures trading flirted with $2,800 in 2024, and the COMEX futures high for the year is listed as $2,799.50. The London PM Fix price’s high for 2024 was $2,777.80 per ounce on Oct. 30, according to a Kitco.com chart. Reuters reported the record gold price was $2,790.15 on Oct. 31.

The New York spot price at midday trading Monday was $2,603.10, down $17.20. Monday’s price was up about 26% from the price of gold at the start of the year.

The London PM Fix recorded on Kitco.com shows the gold price began 2024 at $2,067.55 per ounce on Jan. 2, and a random sampling shows the London Fix price was at $2,372.45 on May 10, $2,480.25 per ounce on July 17, $2,629.95 on Sept. 23, $2,736.45 on Oct. 21, and $2,651.45 on Nov. 29.

Neils Christensen, writing for Kitco.com late last week, said, “Low holiday trading volume in the final week of 2024 was expected to keep gold prices contained within their narrow range, according to some market analysts.”

He wrote on Monday the gold market is struggling to hold support at $2,600 an ounce and could face increased selling pressure as the U.S. housing market shows further signs of stabilizing and more consumers start the process of buying a new home, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors.

The U.S. pending home sales index rose 2.2% in November.

High gold prices are important to Elko, Spring Creek, Carlin, Battle Mountain, Eureka, Winnemucca, Lovelock and Tonopah, especially because there are gold mines near their communities that employ miners and buy from vendors.

“As gold prices go, so goes our regional economy. When gold prices are high and rising, there’s a lot more exploration, construction, development, optimism, and subsequent hiring by the miners,” Keener said in an email. “This has a trickle-down effect for restaurants, hotels, casinos, automobile dealers, retailers and homebuilders as consumer demand increases.”

Keener said that another benefit with rising gold prices is that marginal/low-grade gold projects begin to pencil out. Deposits that weren’t economical 24 months ago are now attracting attention.

At the Elko city level, the mayor said as Elko prepares its annual budgets, “gold prices play a factor in my judgment because the level of economic activity has a measurable impact on sales tax revenues, which the city is dependent on for funding our general fund.”

He said the sales tax Elko collects makes up about two-thirds of the general fund, and “we’re dependent on this revenue source for fire, police, street maintenance, administration, etc.”

The World Gold Council’s outlook for 2025 states that behind the high prices, central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand, and as 2025 begins, “all eyes are focused” on what former President Donald Trump’s second term may mean for the global economy.

“Thrill-seeking investors may benefit from an early wave of risk-on flows, but potential trade wars and inflationary forces may spill over into an expected subpar economic growth,” the World Gold Council wrote.

The council also pointed out total gold demand in the third quarter surpassed $100 billion for the first time.

The council’s conclusion is that “gold is likely to remain rangebound if existing market expectations are correct. However, a combination of higher rates and lower economic growth could negatively affect investors and consumers. This could be particularly evident in Asia. Conversely, significantly lower interest rates, or a deterioration in geopolitics or market conditions will improve gold’s performance.

“Finally, a key checkpoint will be central bank demand, as it will continue to provide a boost to gold if it remains at a healthy level.

“Gold’s final price performance will depend on the interaction of gold’s four key drivers: economic expansion; risk; opportunity cost; and momentum,” the report says.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, told Reuters “gold will still be purchased by central banks, and as inflation continues, you may see increased demand for gold on the retail side as well,” and he added prices are expected to break $3,000 next year.

The Wall Street Journal’s Ryan Dezember wrote on Dec. 28 that “few investments did better in 2024 than gold, which is wrapping up its best year since 2010 and one of its largest gains on record. Wall Street’s gold bugs think prices will climb even higher in 2025.”

Analysts at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup each had a gold price target of $3,000 per ounce in 2025, according to Dezember, who reported their reasons included the expectation of more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, more money going into exchange-traded funds, and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Investors large and small tend to flock to gold in times of heightened conflict. And there is plenty of that headed into 2025, from wars in the Middle East and Ukraine to President-elect Donald Trump’s vows to escalate trade disputes with China and other countries. The prospect that inflation will flare up again also has investors on edge,” the Wall Street Journal states.

“There are several reasons gold has been back in favor,” Steve Braverman, founder of Dignity Gold told CBS News. “The most obvious is inflation over the last few years, as gold will always be a store of value during inflationary times. Another reason is the continuing conflicts in both the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine.”

CBS News also quoted Jose Gomez, a partner at Summit Metals, saying that “if U.S. fiscal policies lead to greater national debt and inflationary pressures, gold’s appeal as an alternative store of value is likely to increase.

“Central banks may also keep diversifying their reserves away from an exclusive reliance on the dollar, further supporting gold demand,” he said.

Despite the record gold prices, shares in gold producers with mines in Nevada didn’t reflect as big an increase as might be expected, especially since there were bumps in the road.

For example, Newmont Corp.’s shares fell after the company posted high costs in the third quarter. SSR Mining stocks fell after nine employees at its gold mine in Turkey died in a leach pad slide and Barrick Gold Corp. is wrestling with the military government in Malta and had a slower-than-expected ramp up at Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic.

Newmont share prices in 2024 ranged from a 52-week high of $58.72 to a low of $29.42, and the noontime price Monday was $37.11, down 73 cents, while Barrick’s shares reached a 52-week high of $21.35 and a 52-week low of $13.76 and the price at noontime Monday was $15.43, down 26 cents.

Barrick and Newmont are partners in Nevada Gold Mines, producing gold from major mines in northern Nevada, with Barrick as operator and 61.5% owner. Newmont holds the remainder, and is also 40% owner of Pueblo Viejo, with Barrick as operator and 60% owner.

SSR Mining, which owns the Marigold Mine in Nevada and is buying the Cripple Creek & Victor gold mine in Colorado from Newmont, saw its shares drop as low as $3.76 in 2024 after the tragedy in Turkey. The 52-week high was $11.15, and the noontime price Monday was $6.94, down 12 cents.

Shares of Kinross Gold Corp., which owns the Round Mountain Mine in Nye County and the Bald Mountain Mine in White Pine County, hit a 52-week high of $10.82 in 2024 and a low of $4.75 per share. Shares were at $9.14, down 17 cents, in midday trading Monday.

Coeur Mining, which is a silver and gold producer in Pershing County and completed a major expansion in 2024, saw its shares go from a 52-week low of $2.42 to a 52-week high of $7.72, and shares were at $5.73, down 4 cents, Monday.

Shares of Calibre Mining Corp., which owns the Pan Mine in White Pine County, operations in Nicaragua and is developing the Valentine gold mine in Canada, were at $1.47, down 3 cents, Monday. Those shares had a 52-week high of $2.10 and a low of 88 cents.

Orla Mining, which has the South Railroad Project in Elko County, and is acquiring the Musselwhite gold mine in Canada from Newmont, saw its share prices hit a 52-week high of $5.79 and a low of $3.02. Orla shares were at $5.48, down a penny, midday Monday.

McEwen Mining, owner of the Gold Bar Mine in Eureka County and the Fox Complex in Canada, part-owner of a precious metals mine in Argentina and a large shareholder in McEwen Copper, posted a 52-week high of $12.50 per share, and a low of $5.92. Shares were at $7.72, down 20 cents, on Monday.

The Florida Canyon Mine in Pershing County was just acquired by Integra Resources to become that company’s first producing mine. The 52-week high for its shares is $1.28, and the low, 64 cents. The price on Monday was 87 cents, down nearly 2 cents.

A company with some gold production as it advances projects in Nevada, Reno-based i-80 Gold Corp., had a share price of 50 cents, down less than a penny, Monday, compared with a 52-week high of $1.80 and a low of 34 cents.